Despite the large void the NHL lockout has created, the hockey season is already long upon us as various amateur and professional leagues throughout North America and Europe have already wrapped up their preseasons and are set to begin or are already in the thick of regular season action. The Lightning’s new AHL affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch, open their 2012-2013 season tonight with an impressive roster that boasts most, especially the nucleus, of last season’s Calder Cup-winning roster and an infusion of talent with varying professional experience (J.T. Brown, Brett Connolly, Danick Gauthier, Riku Helenius, Dmitry Korobov, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jared Nightingale, Matt Taormina and J.T. Wyman). In the absence of big-league action, watching much of the (currently foreseeable) lifeblood of the Lightning’s future skate and bond together is a much-welcomed tonic.

The ensured presence of Brown, Connolly and Wyman is, of course, the byproduct of the ongoing NHL labor dispute but what has been good for the goose has also been good for the gander as teams throughout the AHL have been similarly bolstered. Still, though winning a second-consecutive organizational championship isn’t going to come easy, Syracuse appears to have the makings of a juggernaut with such an intriguing blend of youth, depth and experience at both ends of the ice.

With Martin St. Louis‘ career is in its final stages and Ryan Malone’s tenure in Tampa probably nearing its last act, however, between the pedigreed draftees (Connolly, Alex Killorn, Namestnikov, Richard Panik) and last season’s free-agent signees (reigning AHL MVP and Rookie of the Year, Cory Conacher, the diminutive but nearly as productive Tyler Johnson and the Lightning’s late call-up, Brown), it’s the young scoring forwards in that will, in all likelihood, be under the microscope in Syracuse; it’s an open secret that the plan is for replacements to come from within.

No matter how we might be inclined to handicap the race to the Lightning’s top-6 before or after this season, having so many of the Lightning’s young guns set to play together, if nothing else, will provide an opportunity to assess the concept of League Equivalencies, a statistical approach to approximating a player’s, future offensive contributions (were he to make the jump) in the NHL from production in other leagues. As Josh Lile of Defending Big D, in his assessment of the Dallas Stars pipeline, succinctly explains:

“A league equivalent point total basically says ‘based on what this player did in this league we would expect that production to translate to ____ in the NHL.’”

Another contribution from hockey statistician Gabriel Desjardins, league equivalencies are an adaptation of one of Bill James’ ideas for baseball’s sabermetric community. Desjardins’ work was introduced in 2005 but it’s application has really only become somewhat commonplace in recent years. Scott Reynolds has long-since provided the extra wrinkle of adjusting equivalencies for age.

Below are the corresponding NHL equivalencies for the signed forwards in the Lightning organization currently assigned to Syracuse. To get a projection for a full NHL season for each player, point totals were divided by games played to find scoring rates (points per game) which were multiplied by 82 before adjusting for the league by finally multiplying by the league quality (or relative difficulty to the NHL) and rounding the equivalencies to the nearest whole number:

It’s important to keep in mind that these scoring translations do not establish an absolute benchmark for NHL performance but they do possess strong predictive value, especially at younger ages. Of course, player production, especially after moving to a new league, is sensitive to changes in ice time, role and usage (i.e. zone-starts, quality of teammates and competition) or even injuries. You see this bear out pretty clearly above with Angelidis, Brown, Killorn and Wyman, who spent time in two leagues, especially the latter three. Also, Connolly may have spent all of last season with the Lightning but he provides another recent example when you account for his production in juniors (not historically elite but still very impressive), which makes a pretty stark comparison to his disappointing totals as an NHL rookie:

Obviously making the jump to the most difficult league last season played a role in the the precipitous drop-off in production but Connolly’s scoring rates in his age 16 and 17 seasons (the bulk of which are typically maintained during a player’s peak scoring years) and other dynamics to his rookie season explored previously expounded upon should make it clear it’s way too early to get down on the 2010 1st rounder. With a more prominent and consistent role in Syracuse, expect Connolly’s production, at a still-tender 20 years of age, to approach his immense potential again. It’s not hard to imagine Vladislav Namestnikov experiencing something similar this season as a first year pro on a stacked Crunch squad.

Again, league equivalencies provide a framework for assessing where players are at, offensively, in NHL terms. Over the course (at the mid-point and conclusion) of this season, we’ll take a look at these forwards’ equivalencies again and explore trends, but, in the meantime, let’s all enjoy some actual hockey, eh?

Photo by Susan Ferlita

Brett Connolly, you may have noticed, has been a polarizing figure for some time now. From the day he was drafted, really, as his gum-chewing and detached demeanor during an interview rubbed some the wrong way. Subsequent appearances have not helped much to alleviate the general perception of Connolly as cold and aloof, the antithesis to the ebullient Steven Stamkos. Perhaps, too, the early returns Anaheim and Carolina have received from Cam Fowler and Jeff Skinner may have had some fans wondering if Yzerman chose the wrong kid in 2010. However, a lackluster personality and not developing as quickly as others can easily be forgiven.

That Connolly’s immediate future within the Lightning organization has come into question is mostly a result of his roller-coaster of a rookie season during which he seemed to spend more time plummeting than climbing. The late-season signings and professional debuts of J.T. Brown and Alex Killorn as well as AHL MVP Cory Conacher earning a contract are significant factors too, but the discussion truly begins and ends with Connolly’s own performance, of which opinions seem to range from entirely disastrous to, at best, disappointing. The prescriptions vary, too, from calls to bury Connolly in Syracuse for at least a season, starting him there with the expectation he’ll earn a call-up, having him battle for an available roster spot in training camp and even reserving one for him so as to avoid crushing his confidence.

If there is an NHL season, we’ll see which option the organization thinks best for Brett but for quite some time now I’ve been more interested in revisiting the very reason for the debate. I wanted to try and gauge whether or not Connolly was really as bad–offensively and defensively–in his rookie season as some have claimed and I wanted to dig deeper than his basic season stat line, my own subjective impressions formed during the season and even what select viewings of game footage might suggest.

I’ve previously cited the analytical benefits of Player Usage Charts. The Lightning’s chart is the first piece of evidence I consulted in order to build some context for the ice time Connolly did see:

Boucher, whom Clare Austin pointed out in her review of the charts, appears to have “favored specialists over generalists” but Connolly, the unproven rookie, and Malone stand out as exceptions to the rule in that they lack a clearly defined role given their placement in the chart. This makes sense given they both spent even-strength time on the top and bottom lines over the course of the season. We can see Connolly skated against somewhat, though not overly, challenging opposition and also that the on-ice puck possession was slightly negative but probably more a byproduct of skating a good chunk of his even-strength minutes on the lower lines over the course of the season than anything else. Austin speculated as to whether “he’d have been more productive in a more ‘sheltered’ role.” When you consider his distribution of ice time with other players, one can only wonder how Boucher could have done that without skating Connolly almost exclusively on the top lines.

And, although he cautions reading too much into usage of players from different teams, Rob Vollman created rookie usage charts which provide an additional frame of reference:

One of the biggest the story lines surrounding Connolly last season, which flowed from the team and filtered through the media, focused on his demotion to the lower lines and reduced ice time due to poor defensive play and his need to work on that side of his game, a development Connolly was humble enough to admit to at the time:

“I have to get better in my defensive end,” Connolly said. “It’s a work in progress. It’s a matter of me getting better as a hockey player — (even) if that means I have to play on the fourth line and not play as much and focus on the D zone.”

Photo by Susan Ferlita

It’s interesting that Connolly’s defensive struggles became such a defining narrative for his season and yet, it turns out he had the third-lowest goals against rate per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time and the second-highest even-strength on-ice save % among all Lightning players who played more than 20 games. Is this to say that Connolly was actually a polished defensive presence for the bulk of last season? No, of course not. However, the notion he was a consistent liability doesn’t hold up, either, as it’s not likely teammates he skated with on the lower lines who had difficulty maintaining possession and generating shots without him, nor those he skated with on the top lines looked to mainly for their offense were protecting him.

Perhaps the most powerful charge lobbed Connolly’s way, and probably the greatest source of frustration, is that he struggled to score. Indeed, his adjusted shooting % (factoring in missed shots as well), averaging both his even-strength and power play rates, was about 2%. That’s absurdly low, one of the worst in the league among those who played at least 20 games last season and partially explains the team’s struggle to score with him on the ice (his playing on the lower lines seems significant too). This, too, despite Connolly and his linemates getting their fair share of opportunities–the team was almost possession-neutral over the course of the season–while he was on the ice.

The Lightning, of course, don’t need advanced stats to know that frequently skating a thoroughbred on the bottom lines is less than ideal and would adversely impact his production. It’s clear having Connolly become more well-rounded was a key goal, but his handling last season also smacks, to some extent, of proverbial rookie treatment. Perhaps that’s the other part of the story that will remain untold. Circling back, it does seem fair to say that Connolly’s rookie season was extremely disappointing albeit mostly, as it turns out, from an offensive–not defensive–standpoint. As for what to expect for him moving forward, that’s an entirely separate discussion that, for now, will have to wait.

For many, including myself, the 2011-2012 Player Usage Charts [PDF] released by Robert Vollman (and friends) have proven invaluable, as the foreword suggests, for putting “last year’s player production into context”. Based on zone start and quality of competition data, these charts help us to see how a team’s players were utilized by their coach in relation to each other.

The following graphic helps interpret the significance of a player’s bubble (the size of which reflects his Relative Corsi, blue being a positive value and white a negative value) on a team’s chart:

Again, Clare Austin of Raw Charge has already done an excellent job assessing the Lightning’s player usage last season under coach Guy Boucher based on the Hockey Abstract charts. However, these excluded all players with less than 10 games played which meant that Mike Angelidis (6 games), J.T. Brown (5 games) and Evan Oberg (3 games) were not shown on the Lightning’s chart.

Regardless of the extremely small sample sizes, it seemed worthwhile to generate usage charts that included them, even if only for the sake of a little extra discussion:

Despite registering just a single assist, Brown’s play earned rave reviews for brief end-of-the-year stint. The buzz he created seems particularly justified when you consider that, when he did hit the ice, he ate up some very tough even-strength minutes. He did register a very high (unsustainable) on-ice save percentage (.971) so perhaps he got a bit lucky as his PDO (1059), similar to BABIP for baseball, would indicate.

Angelidis, we can see, was somewhat sheltered in his extremely limited action in that he faced relatively easy competition. He, too, took advantage.

Oberg, we can see, benefited from the favorable zone starts but also benefited from a perfect on-ice save-percentage that, of course, wouldn’t hold up with more action.

The revolution in hockey analysis, late-developing and centered around the increased reliance on statistical information, has been underway for some time now. A small and marginalized movement in the past for various reasons, advanced analysis has gained such widespread traction that its relevance and influence is no longer deniable. That isn’t to say that advanced stats are close to or ever will be the panacea for evaluating hockey players and teams. As Robert Vollman, one of the leading hockey statisticians out there, explained in the foreword to his recently released 2011-2012 Player Usage Charts:

“…objective hockey analysis acts a useful supplement to everybody’s own experience-based understanding of the game…”

Part of a larger sports trend, this shift, predictably, has faced some well-reasoned skepticism (for example, Daniel Wagner’s Kierkegaard, Choice and the Limitations of Advanced Statistics) and, from traditionalists, prolonged resistance and outright disavowals (here’s looking at you, Brian Burke and Mike Milbrury). At present, there’s a very charged discourse surrounding the merits of advanced statistics but, no matter one’s take, clearly a new era in professional hockey has dawned when the powers that be are attending conferences on sports analysis, teams (including the Lightning) are adding analysts to their operational staff and mainstream sources are catching on. For these reasons alone, it’s worth keeping up with the times.

What’s particularly exciting about these developments is that the field is still in its infancy. It may seem odd to suggest that, but for all parties–teams, players, agents, the media and especially the fans–there are implications and possibilities. All stand to benefit from exploring and finding uses information that’s already out there or in development. Again, we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg; take, for example, the profound potential that the SportVu technology, initially introduced a half-decade ago, already established in soccer and football coverage and now being deployed for basketball), presents for hockey analysis. How teams conduct their business–scouting, signing free agents, conducting trades, preparing for opponents, evaluating their own personnel–is evolving; advanced stats, whatever their present limitations, are here to stay and only to what extent they’ll be useful remains to be seen.

I’ve long been interested in seeing something on par with baseball sabermetrics developed for hockey, but, admittedly, when first exploring the work being done several years ago (particularly Gabriel Desjardin’s BehindtheNet.ca), I found myself discouraged and dismissive, perhaps partially due to my non-mathematical background but largely because I was bothered by how problematic it seemed to me to develop reliable, individualized advanced stats for a team sport. It wasn’t until last summer that I began to revisit many of the concepts as well as their intended usage and really started to become a believer.

I was in the midst of initially building my own Lightning site, Electric Blue Hockey Test, and, though I found plenty to read on other teams, there seemed to be a lack of advanced analysis specifically devoted to the Lightning. I spent this past season beefing up my own comprehension with the intent of helping fill the perceived void once I fully committed to writing. Fortunately, Clare Austin of Raw Charge got the ball rolling on this ambition with an intriguing breakdown of Guy Boucher’s player usage and evaluation of their resulting performance in 2010-2011.

It’s in this vein that some of my contributions to this site will be made, as Chad explained in my introduction and it’s my hope that those in the community here will find such work stimulative, regardless of whether one’s prevailing views are challenged or reinforced. I expect, given the nature of focus of this site, exploring the concept of league equivalencies as a predictive tool for NHL production will, in particular, be an enjoyable addition to the existing dialogues concerning those in the Lightning’s prospect pool.

If you aren’t already familiar with advanced stats, here’s a brief selection of informative readings to guide you:

• Cam Charron’s Introduction to Advanced Stats [The Hockey Writers]
• Gabriel Desjardin’s FAQ on Statistical Analysis [Arctic Ice Hockey]
• Gabriel Desjardin’s Primer for Behind the Net [Arctic Ice Hockey]
• Clare Austin’s Advanced Stats Primer [Raw Charge]
• Vic Ferrari’s Using Time on Ice, Part 1 [Irreverant Oiler Fans]
• Vic Ferrari’s Using Time on Ice, Part 2 [Irreverant Oiler Fans]

Following are a few sources of publicly-available advanced metrics:

• Gabriel Desjardin’s Behind the Net
• Robert Vollman’s Hockey Abstract
• David Johnson’s Hockey Analysis
• Vic Ferrari’s Time on Ice

This exciting opportunity came extremely unexpected but I didn’t hesitate to join such a respected site and collaborate with the brain-trust there (Timothy Bennett, Pete Choquette and Chad Schnarr). It was made very clear that joining BP was not an all-or-nothing proposition; the extent of my involvement was up to me to decide, which I appreciated greatly as I have spent a considerable amount of time and energy (and a little bit of $) developing this site–always intended as a supplement, not a competitor, to the fine work being done elsewhere–which had only recently really gained traction.

Though suspending my coverage here was not a condition to joining BP, I think doing so is the right decision. It has been fun operating this site as a one-man show but with a full-time career and a substantial life change (my wife is presently 6-months pregnant with our first child) on the way, I’m going to write exclusively for BP. Perhaps down the road I’ll figure out how I’d like to utilize this space for Lightning-related writing interests that don’t detract from my work there and resume publishing from here; that possibility always remains.

I will, however, continue to update certain information: the Lightning schedule, roster, prospects, contracts, free agents and history. The other chief purpose I intended this site to serve was as a repository of Lightning-related information, a sort of one-stop shop for Lightning fans instead of having to seek out multiple sources. This vision and some of these features will be added to BoltProspects in the future but they will be maintained here regardless now.

I thank all of you who had begun to frequent this small-but-growing site, those of you who contacted me and paid me compliments. I hope you keep the site bookmarked and look forward to my pending work with BP.

Sincerely,

Mike

Following are the takeaways from watching as much as Day 5′s scrimmages as I could individually focus on:

Standouts

Photo by “C” @TBLightningGuy

• I didn’t see as much of the tournament champions as I would have liked, but it’s no surprise Team Hedman won. They dictated much of the play in the first several matches I saw them in before Team St. Louis gave them a run for their money in the final game. Slater Koekkoek, already having drawn plenty of positive attention this week, scored the lone shootout goal by going five-hole on Pat Nagle. I hope somebody snapped a shot of him mid-celebration; it was that good. Team Hedman was a cohesive unit, though, that relied as much on the strong two-way play of Vladimir Namestnikov and Nikita Nesterov, and the timely offensive contributions of Cedric Paquette, as it did Koekkoek. Nesterov, in particular, was often relied upon, or decided himself, to carry and distribute the puck, a task he did efficiently.

Photo by Eric Dubose

• I think it’s safe to say J.T. Brown’s performance today and, really, throughout camp, made the positive impression he was trying to make, regardless of GM Steve Yzerman’s insistence that the organization was exclusively using the camp for instruction and not evaluative purposes. Brown dazzled the crowd early by using his speed while protecting the puck to beat a defender as he took a sharp angle to the net, scoring by going from his forehand to his backhand at the last second and tucking the puck under the crossbar. But it was a play in a subsequent scrimmage that really moved me. With a defender pressing, Brown caught a pass on his forehand below the circle, immediately completed a spin-o-rama during which he switched the puck to his backhand, then drove to the net, pulling the puck back to his forehand for a shot-on-goal and rebound opportunity while cutting across the crease. So beautiful and so sudden; it happened in a flash and that’s what I mulled over, that Brown can do things that other players might try but not in that same space and certainly at a speed few can match. If he can survive in the NHL doing this, he’ll put up his fair share of highlight-reel material.

Photo by Eric Dubose

• Tanner Richard was nothing short of, well, electric in the scrimmage action yesterday. He put on a show with the puck yesterday, shifty and nimble and incredibly creative in tight and along the boards to maintain possession. His is an intriguing blend of size (not so much height, but a sturdy frame with room to add bulk), power and skill with the puck that gave his opposition fits trying to cover him and was simply fun to watch. Austin Czarnik also deserves credit, however, for helping Richard carry the play for their team. I counted at least three instances where Czarnik’s speed allowed him to blow through an attempted stick-check and cause the opponent to lose their grips on their sticks, which went flying to the ice. Their combined efforts freed up Dotchin and Blujus to play a simple game and, while on the attack, work their way into prime scoring positions. Dotchin, in particular, had plenty of chances and buried several as a result of their playmaking.

Photo by Eric Dubose

• Cody Bradley was impressive throughout the week but was especially entertaining on Saturday, displaying plenty of confidence and skill with the puck and a high motor. As a result of efforts, he managed to notch several goals, one of which in particularly impressive fashion by first forcing a turnover that led his being in alone on Nagle, whom he beat low to the blocker side after a slight hesitation. As I’ve said before, it’s easy to see he needs to physically mature, but he looks to have plenty of ambition and instincts. It will be fun to keep tabs on the kid while he’s off at Colorado State and see, if he’s back at the development camp again next summer, to see how he’s progressed.

Brief Impressions

• Jimmy Mullin is good at hockey. No slight to Philip-Michael Devos, but Mullin did what he could to carry his squad. He’s strong with and without the puck. He’s got a hell of a shot and he showed a gear that I hadn’t seen before yesterday, beating out the speedy and pesky Matthew Peca to a puck that, unless my angle deceived me, one might have expected Peca to get to first, then out-dueling Peca in a wall battle, freeing himself up to walk in for an unsuccessful but quality scoring chance.
• Andrei Vasilevski had, statistically, a hell of a tournament (1.00 GAA, .903 SV%) but, unfortunately, I’m not able to comment on his play because I was positioned at the other end of the rink and focused my attention to the play on that side. Mea culpa.
• Cedric Paquette put up seven goals. Think he has a knack for scoring?

Reflection

This past week has been thoroughly enjoyable. I had great fun live-tweeting and blogging, as much as possible, my impressions as well as interacting online and in person with fellow fans and, in a few instances, with family of attendees. In particular, it was a real treat getting to spend, off and on, a couple hours with the proud grandfather of invitee G Clarke Saunders, who made the trek all the way from Ontario. I look forward to a little bit of rest and recuperation but hope to see and similarly cover many of these prospects in just a few short months at the Lightning’s training camp. There’s plenty of action I probably missed and would have been worth commenting on, but I hope those of you who couldn’t be there felt well-served. Thanks, as always, for reading, folks.

Following are just a few takeaways from watching Day 3′s on-ice action:

Brief Impressions

Photo by @TBLightningGuy

• Austin Czarnik, a forward invitee, shows plenty of burst and skill with the puck but  (and, of course, this isn’t an indictment) he’s tiny. TINY. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s got the grit and peskiness of Cory Conacher, last year’s camp darling, to compliment the strong offensive talents, most notably an extremely quick release which launches a consistently hard and accurate wrist shot. He’s worth keeping an eye on, especially as a teammate of fellow high-grade forward prospect Jimmy Mullin at Miami.

Photo by @TBLightningGuy

Invitee D Garret Clarke, in terms of stature and build, bears a strong resemblance to prospect D Kiril Gotovets. At one point, both were side-by-side in a corner during a drill and it was not easy, by any means, to distinguish them. The few minutes I focused on Clarke were during a repetitious and routine passing and shooting drill. Aside from his poise–he was one of the most consistent in executing each attempt–what truly stuck out about him was how heavy his wrist/snap shot was. His is an interesting, if checkered, past. Once highly-touted juniors prospect who backed out of a verbal commitment to play college hockey with North Dakota, he has bounced around teams ever since and was at the center of one of the more bizarre junior hockey scenarios a couple years ago.

Photo by Eric Dubose

• I’ve heard plenty of pucks hit the glass at the Ice Sports Forum over the years but invitee D Andrej Sjustr, who I’ve already written about to some extent, rifled a snap shot high over the net that made a distinct and startling smacking sound that gave the impression he had cracked panel of glass it struck. It was funny, of course, to see a couple unsuspecting attendees duck in reaction. I have yet to see Sjustr wind up and really try to crank one, but I’m now extremely eager to see what kind of zip he can get on his slap shot. If Sjustr can generate plus velocity, it would really add some fuel to the early comparisons to Zdeno Chara.

Note about Day 4

Due to a prior commitment (a friend’s wedding, in which I served as a groomsman), I was unable to attend yesterday’s sessions and scrimmage action. Jason Haas of Sons of Andreychuk was present and shared a few impressions.

Looking ahead to Day 5

I will be there in attendance for today’s scrimmage action on this, the last day of this year’s prospect development camp. As I’ve done all this week, I will be live-tweeting thoughts and answering any questions you might have and if you’re there and feeling social, I’d be honored to meet you as it’s always a pleasure to meet and talk hockey with fellow fans.

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/220623783642398720/

Following are some of my takeaways, for those of you who enjoy this sort of thing, from watching the day’s on-ice activities:

Standouts

Photo by Eric Dubose

• I spent a good chunk of time watching Luke Witkowski. It’s been fun seeing him at each development camp for the past four years and he finally looks as polished as you’d expect a vet prospect, one who’s a pending senior and team-leader on a competitive college squad, to look in comparison to much of the others. Be in skating, passing or shooting (at which he looks much better than I recalled) drills, Witkowski always looks intense and yet thoroughly enjoying himself. Plenty of personality out on the ice and, I’d be willing to bet, in the locker room; he should be highly entertaining to follow once he enters the pro ranks and fun to root for his ascension in the ranks. He also seems to be a lock for the organization’s All-Beard team and, though I could be wrong, looks like he could give the current heavyweights in the beard-growing department, Radko Gudas and Scott Jackson, a run for their money.
• I took a closer look at D Andrej Sjustr, the 6’8″ behemoth invitee whose skating I critiqued in the Day 1 blog, and came away intrigued. The lack of foot speed is a function of his size and, though it might be improved, should always plague him. It’s how Sjustr manages to move when he gets going, though, that’s so impressive. He seems grown into his frame; there isn’t an awkwardness to his mechanics that’s often evident in over-sized project defensemen like this. He executed all of the skater drills efficiently and, I’d go so far to say, with a bit of flair. I’m not saying he skates like Bobby Orr, but after watching Vladimir Mihalik and Matt Smaby in seasons past, Sjustr looks downright proficient in that department. I still don’t have much of a read on his shot; he can whip the puck pretty good but showed a limited shot selection. Of course, the scrimmages will help to gauge him, too.

Brief Impressions

Photo by Eric Dubose

•  I’m not sure what his offensive-upside is–he looked more poised without the puck–but Jake Dotchin moved his 6’2″, 200+ pound frame very well in the drills. He’s definitely more mobile than I anticipated and I ended up making a very off the cuff comparison to Cory Sarich. It’ll be intriguing to see how his positional play will hold up at the elevated pace of a scrimmage and whether or not he’ll display the physical side of his game that he seems to have shown up in juniors.

Photo by Eric Dubose

• As I always try to make very clear, goalies are hard for me to evaluate. Having never played the position and never talked shop with other goalies, I can’t explain exactly why Andrei Vasilevski is so special in technical jargon but watching him the past couple days, what separates him, beyond his size, from the other goalies, for me, is his combination of power and grace. He comes across the crease with what looks like incredible ease but it’s deceptive; he generates incredible speed as he pushes off, his legs taking up what looks like all the space down low. It’s something you probably have to see yourself to fully appreciate but I thought it worth attempting to describe.
• Brendan O’Donnell may not be participating in a limited fashion given he is recovering from a shoulder injury that shortened his season but he’s fun to watch in the power skating drills. He has great control of his body, with and without the puck and looks to have a great burst. Of course, a lot of that has to do with his size; at 6’0″ he’s not small but has a compact, almost slender frame.

Looking ahead to Day 3

The kids are back it tomorrow as early as 8:00 a.m. when the first of four consecutive power skating lessons will begin. There will be a a goalies-only session at 8:45 a.m. and shooting practice by groups of skaters at 9:45 and 11:15 a.m.

As for myself, I will be there in attendance yet again tomorrow live-tweeting thoughts and answering any questions you might have; if you’re there and feeling social, I’d be honored to meet you as it’s always a pleasure to meet and talk hockey with fellow fans. As for a Day 3 recap, I’ll do my best but it may not be up until late Thursday as I have a wedding rehearsal and dinner (not my own) to attend.

Photo by Michael Gallimore

With a national holiday tomorrow promising a lighter workload and an afternoon excursion to see the Rays looming, the Lightning’s prospects and invitees took to the ice for several sessions this morning and afternoon. As GM Steve Yzerman took the time to stress, this camp is strictly a tool for presenting the culture of professional hockey, getting a feel for each player’s conditioning, abilities and, in the case of returning participants, progression and provide some structured learning opportunities:

Following are some of my takeaways, for those of you who enjoy this sort of thing, from watching almost all (I arrived a little late to the 11:30 a.m. whole group session due to a prior engagement) of today’s on-ice activities:

Standouts

Photo by Michael Gallimore

• Recently drafted Russian goalie Andrei Vasilevski was every bit as entertaining   as suggested by Peter Pupello and Damian Cristodero, who devoted an entire feature to his performance. The key highlight was the sequence where he drew a loud cheer with a handful of Hasek-eque, acrobatic saves that stymied the efforts of one disbelieving pair during a 2-on-0 drill. If the available scouting reports describe him as big and athletic, they earned the first thing you notice about the soon-to-be 18 year-old netminder is his size. Then, while watching him square up for shots, make a save and react to rebounds is how fluid his movement and technique is in and around the crease, at least until his instincts lead him to attempt any flop or contortion possible in an attempt to make a save. He seems adept at making stops with every possible inch of his frame and piece of his equipment; in short, he’s just fun to watch.
• Judging by often he flashed a very wide grin, J.T. Brown looked very loose and to be having the most fun. At the start of one shooting drill, he fell awkwardly but took it in stride, chuckling to himself as he carried on to mock jeers from fellow camp-mates, and laughing it off in the corner while waiting his next turn. He was impressive, however, in all of the drills I watched him in, flashing a healthy dosage of the speed and vision he displayed during his short stint with the Lightning at the close of last season as well as a very heavy and accurate, quick-release snap-shot that, in particular, seemed to give Pat Nagle fits. Last season it was Ashton, Killorn and Connolly who appeared in a league of their own compared to other development camp attendees; Brown gave the same impression today.
• Also continually catching my eyes today were James Mullin and Cedric Paquette. Mullin, whom BoltProspects has touted as the next stealth prospect on the heels of Alex Killorn, looks even more chiseled than he did last summer; the college regimen has been good to him. He’s everything you could want in a promising forward prospect: great burst, agility and stamina, impressive with the puck and the swagger of a trigger man. Like Brown, he was flying today and looked that far more advanced than most of the other attendees. Paquette shined in the transition and shooting drills. He showed some real handiwork with the puck, consistently dishing tape-to-tape passes with the needed zip or touch and an indiscriminate shot selection. Simply put, he struck me as a creative force on the attack. Less impressive was his skating, at which he looked only marginally better than Philip-Michael Devos and brought Vinny Prospal to mind.

Brief Impressions

Photo by Michael Gallimore

• All three of defenseman (Slater Koekkoek, Dylan Blujus and Jake Dotchin) selected in the recent 2012 draft can skate. I was particularly impressed with Koekkoek and Blujus in the power skating drills where both showed off their mobility and looked to handle their edges and hip transitions with ease. All were steady in the earlier puck drills, fending off most (and, in the case of Dotchin, all) puck-carriers in 1-on-1 drills and effectively sealing off the best scoring chance during odd-man rushes. It was also fun to watch Koekkoek ham it up with Luke Witkowski for a few minutes after their group concluded the last session of the day. A small omen or meaningless, perhaps, but you like to think it bodes well to see a player thoroughly enjoy being on the ice so much and making (let’s hope) a habit of sticking around after he has to.
• Probably due to where I was positioned myself today, I didn’t see much of forwards Mike Hart, Vladislav Namestnikov or Tanner Richard until the power skating session. From what I did see in the earlier drills, Hart seemed to have a little trouble keeping up as the drills wore on. His skating may or may not need some work; he’s fresh out of prep school and, like Vasilevski, he’s got a hell of a frame for his age. The skill was evident, though, which makes it easy to imagine Hart several years now, when fully grown into his body, as a promising power forward. Namestnikov was ho-hum (which isn’t criticism because his game revolves around his speed and tenacity, the latter of which is most evident during situational drills, scrimmages and games) while Richard didn’t really do much today worth noting (that I saw) aside from becoming visibly frustrated after committing a turnover during a 2-on-1 drill by making an ill-advised pass that was easily read and intercepted by newly-signed defensive prospect Artem Sergeev.
• Likewise, I didn’t see all that much of defensemen 2011 5th rounder Nikita Nesterov, giant (6’8″!) invitee Andrej Sustr or Luke Witkowski. Nesterov, from what I did see, is physically underwhelming and possesses an awkward stride but he managed to maintain gap control and then use his stick effectively and muscle off forwards when in-tight. Sustr looked like a more polished and, though hard to judge, better-skating version of Vladimir Mihalik; he struggled with his foot speed (not to be unexpected for somebody his size) getting out of the gate and in transition, but once he got going, he actually looked pretty smooth for such a big guy. Witkowski, sturdily built and known for his rugged play, excited the crowd during a 1-on-1 drill by delivering a solid check to the chest of invitee Brandon McNally (who possesses some decent size himself) that sent McNally to the ice in a heap.
• Cody Bradley, son of Lightning great Brian Bradley, didn’t exactly look out of place but was noticeably less mature from a physical standpoint. He looked to have a hard, choppy stride that will probably receive some attention and his shot looked a little weak but, aside from that and for a raw soon-to-be college freshman, I was left with a very positive first impression.

Looking ahead to Day 2

The kids are back it tomorrow as early as 8:30 a.m. when there will be a goalies-only session. Afterwards, two groups of skaters will alternate between on-ice power-skating and shooting instruction. Earlier today, there was apparently some confusion over Twitter as to whether tomorrow’s happenings would be open to the public; it turns out they will be (and kudos to the good folks over at Raw Charge and others for helping prompt the team to officially confirm so); the Ice Sports Forum will be closed in that there will be no staff present and there are no other events scheduled but the doors will be open and Lightning personnel monitoring for the development camp practices.

As for myself, I will be there in attendance yet again tomorrow live-tweeting thoughts and answering any questions you might have; if you’re there and feeling social, I’d be honored to meet you as it’s always a pleasure to meet and talk hockey with fellow fans. As for a Day 2 recap, I’ll do my best but it may not be up until sometime Wednesday.

That Pouliot and the Lightning came to terms is hardly surprising as both sides had expressed, to the final hours, confidence a deal would get done. Pouliot, as profiled before, gives the Lightning a player who may be inconsistent no matter where he slots; potentially capable of a career-year offensively if he earns top-line and power-play minutes but at the very least, and far more likely, probably destined to provide some offensive punch mostly as a bottom-liner.

Sergeev is an interesting addition to the prospect pool in that he’s a right-shooting defenseman with a good frame (6’2″, 200 pounds) for his age (19) who might, with time, who will become one heck of a find if he develops into something more than minor-league fodder. Also of note is his connection to Lightning prospects Nikita Gusev, Nikita Kucherov, Nikita Nesterov and Andrei Vasilevski, all of whom he played with on this year’s Under-20 Russian squad in the World Juniors Championship.

Salo was a fine addition in the sense that he provides an additional right-shot to the defense corps beyond Brian Lee, plenty of NHL experience to share with the younger members and may potentially be a boost to the power play with his heavy shot and efficiency as a passer. A $3.75 million cap hit sure seems a steep price for a 37 year-old as injury-prone as Salo but the odds are pretty good he’ll play at least 60+ games but Yzerman certainly downplayed the concern for his past:

“I have a good idea of the history of his injuries and none of these — knock on wood — are the type that are joint related or degenerative thing that may limit a player’s career. I just think he’s been banged up and missed games because of various things. To the best of our knowledge he’s in good shape and we hope he’s healthy and can play a majority of games for us.”

In short, Salo provides a small risk the Lightning are content to live with for the marginal upgrade he will probably provide over Kubina or Clark.

Where are the Lightning at now?

The Lightning have twenty forwards, thirteen defensemen and four goalies signed for next season (see the list here) but only ten of the forwards, seven of the defensemen and one of the goalies have a one-way contract. This gives the Lightning a total salary cap commitment, including the buyout of Vinny Prospal, of $52,713,583 at present, leaving the Bolts a bit more than $17 million in cap space. However, there really is less than that for GM Steve Yzerman to work with as projected starter Anders Lindback has yet to be signed to a deal for perhaps as much as $2.5 million per season and it’s also possible that some, or all, of the players with two-way contracts who ended the season with the Lightning (Aulie, Brown, Connolly and Wyman) will be with the big club next season:

https://twitter.com/LightningTimes/status/219561409594400768

The Lightning’s roster now projects to something like this:

What are the Lightning’s needs now?

The Lightning still appear to need to make a move up front, particularly for a center with at least some offensive upside that would allow him to fill in on the top-6 in the event of injury but, the glaring hole for the Lightning’s lineup is still at defense. Salo may be a solid replacement for Ohlund but an established minute-eater for the top-4 is still a necessity, something Yzerman has essentially admitted:

https://twitter.com/LightningTimes/status/219556228349702144

The question then becomes whether the Lightning will continue to explore the free agent market or try to pry a top-4 defenseman from another team by trade.

Remaining Targets

The free agent forward and defenseman markets thinned considerably today but viable options still remain who would address the Lightning’s needs to various extents:

Defensemen

Forwards

Suter may still be a possibility technically but given some of the rumored contract terms being offered by multiple teams, it’s probably safe to conclude the Lightning are no longer in the running as Yzerman seemed, to Damian Cristodero, to convey earlier today. With Garrison signed by Vancouver, Carle and Roszival remain the next best, but significantly less desirous, options given the hefty paydays they are likely to come by and the fact that they are really more complementary top-4 pieces than outright stalwarts. The Lightning should have a good shot at landing one of two beginning tomorrow but it’s not clear they’ll want to. Colaiacovo remains a possibly bargain-priced (provided he stays healthy) alternative, a sort of consolation prize who isn’t a clear-cut top-4 but has the tools to be.

It’s quite possible that more desirable options are or will be available via trade (BoltProspects took a look at potential trade opportunities) and, if so, Yzerman may be better served waiting to see if he can acquire a significant upgrade for the D that way.

As for the forward options, Dominic Moore is still out there unsigned and, with Gaustad, Torrey Mitchell and Jay McClement already off the market, he makes even more sense than he did coming into today. Given his strong offensive instincts, Wellwood could possibly give the third line a substantially more offensive dynamic but probably at the expense of defensive reliability.

It’s still hard to envision Langkow and Jokinen signing with the Lightning but both would interesting and justifiable choices to slot behind Stamkos and Lecavalier. Langkow, especially, would be a great short-term fit. Their salary expectations, regardless of other potential obstacles, will, again, probably be the deciding factor. Pyatt (Tom’s brother) remains a low-end option, adding a good package of size, reliability and limited offensive production to the bottom lines but doesn’t provide much, if any, of a talent improvement over who the Lightning have already.